10/28/11

View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 8

Let me first apologize for my absence last two weeks. Had something very important to accomplish at work. Thanks to my readers for pressing me to write again this week.

I was really upset to see two unbeatens fall last week. I'm a big proponent of a playoff and the chaos that six or more unbeaten teams would cause would really provide a great new argument. But alas, we're down to eight now, a couple of which play each other. But can you imagine the uproar if unbeaten Clemson and Stanford don't get a title shot, let alone Boise.

This is the week we start to see what garbage the BCS rankings are really. I don't have much issue with the top three, which mirrors mine. Where I start to see holes is Boise at No. 4. You all know I love Boise, but Clemson's resume with back-to-back-to-back wins over Auburn, Florida State and Va Tech should speak louder than Boise's one notable win over Georgia. True that we now know FSU was, as I said week 2, overrated. So Clemson, should be four, Boise five. Its a nit pick.
Stanford had played nobody but sixth is fine. Kansas State is finally getting some love and really should be ahead of Oregon (for now, more on them later). After all they did beat the Texas Tech team that just ruined the Sooner's season.
Things get very strange after that. Oklahoma loses to Tech, yet remain ranked above Arkansas (who's only loss is to Alabama), above Michigan State (who just beat Wisconsin), and above Va Tech (who's only loss is to Clemson).
Wisconsin loses on a last second bomb to a very good Sparty squad and falls from No. 4 to No. 15 BEHIND a Nebraska team that they slaughtered and a South Carolina team who lost to Auburn and has won three other games against lesser opponents by three points or less.
Last comment and its about undefeated Houston. The only difference between Houston's schedule and Boise State's schedule is basically Georgia (unless you consider Boise's resume over last five years, in which case proves the flaws of the BCS in a vacuum). Either Houston should be higher or Boise should be lower. Did you see Case Keenum last night? In just over three quarters he threw for 534 yards and NINE touchdowns ... in a driving rain.

That being said, here's my Top 10 this week:
1. LSU - Two-thirds of the way through their regular season and they have yet to be tested. Outside of a 6-3 halftime score against Mississippi State they have impressively blown everyone else away. Their season begins or ends next week against Alabama.
2. Alabama - Like LSU, they have yet to really find relevant competition. The one thing Alabama has to worry about against LSU is that they start slow sometimes. Tied at half against Tennessee, trailed Florida early and failed to ever really put Penn State away.
3. Oklahoma State- The Cowboys are still being underestimated. Only a seven-point fav at Mizzou and killed that number, winning by 21. They host Baylor this week, which should really teach us something about their defense. Vegas says 80 points and if it goes under its because Baylor was held under 30 points.
4. Clemson - Great story. From unranked to a shot at the title. Tough test against the funky Georgia Tech offense this week, but Georgia Tech is sputtering lately. In it's last three games the Ramblin Wreck has been a wreck only scoring 16.33 points per. Not enough to stop Tajh.0.
5. Boise State - After laying waste to Fresno on national TV a couple weeks ago, they were sloppy against Air Force and their ironic iconic ground attack. They might however hang 100 on UNLV, even if Kellen Moore doesn't play the 2nd half.
6. Stanford - Moves up because of the Oklahoma and Wisconsin losses. They are however 2nd in overall points for and 4th in points against, which has made them a home-gamer darling. I think they have covered every week so far. A bit of a test at USC this week.
7. Kansas State - Wins in consecutive games over Miami, Baylor, Missouri and Texas Tech. Mini-feature after Top 10.
8. Oregon - Been humming along since the loss to LSU. The defense is either better than people think or the Pac-12 offenses really do suck. Date with Stanford looms big time, but I think Oregon is relegated to spoiler at this point.
9. Michigan State - Very gritty win over Wisconsin, with a little luck thrown in as well. The defense and special teams were amazing for the middle 40 minutes of the game. Watch out for the let down at Nebraska this week, though.
10. Wisconsin - Their season may have been ruined last week as I don't think enough obstacles can be over come by year end. They may have a chance for redemption in the Big Ten title game, but now they know how it feels to be Ohio State last year.

The old ball coach has still got the magic. And no, I'm not talking Steve Spurrier. This time, we're talking Bill Snyder of Kansas State. Fresh off his 72nd birthday Snyder is leading Kansas State back to the prominence they has in his previous tenure. The Wildcats are 7-0, battle-tested and hungry to prove themselves as a top tier team. Collin Klein is a machine that hasn't been stopped yet. Against Baylor, he out-Griffin'ed Griffin running for 113 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown that put the Cats in position to just need a field goal the next drive to win. Klein has thrown for nearly 1000 yards and eight touchdowns, but has run for almost 700 yards and 14 scores. And the defense isn't bad either. Ranked 23rd overall in points against, they held both Texas Tech and Baylor to 35 points or less. The 35 points from Baylor sounds like a lot until you figure their previous season low was 48 against SF Austin, when they shut it down late. And the 34 allowed against Tech is impressive given the vaunted Oklahoma defense allowed 41.
Put this in perspective: If Kansas State runs the table, they will have beaten six, maybe seven teams ranked in the Top 25 this season. If they can beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma Stat in back to back games, they could find themselves No. 2 in the BCS come November 6. The next four games are all against BCS Top 25 teams, so the season is just getting started for Kansas State. Its a real shame Oklahoma lost last week or GameDay would be at the Little Apple this week.

For the Homers: Michigan State at Nebraska preview - Nebraska grew up as a team and may have entered a new era in the comeback win over Ohio State. Last year's Huskers, hell the last six Husker teams, would not have won that game. They thoroughly dismantled Minnesota in the first half and shut it down. The true test of whether they are back or not comes now. Michigan State is coming off a very emotional win over Wisconsin. The difference in the game was their special teams. That blocked punt touchdown changed the whole game and Wisconsin didn't get traction back until it was too late. The Huskers offensive special teams is better than the Spartans with Abdullah returning kicks. However its when Nebraska is kicking or punting that the Spartans are superior. Sparty may have an emotional let down after last week and coming into Lincoln. This game is now bigger for Nebraska than the Wisconsin game was because if the Huskers fail to win this one, all their goals to start the season became all but unattainable. William Gholston coming back for Michigan State makes it harder for Burkhead and unless Quincy Enunwa can become Nick Toon and fast, the Husker pass game might have trouble hauling in the rainbow heaves of Martinez. Every match up points to Michigan State, yet Nebraska is favored. Early kickoff may mean a long hangover for Husker nation. This is a barometer game for Husker Nation.

Predictions
Locks:
Starting Fresh This week:
1. Clemson over Georgia Tech - The Jackets are reeling. After a perfect start they have dropped two disappointing games against Virginia and Miami. This is not the game is looked like two weeks ago and Clemson is not the team you get back on track against. Clemson by 14.
2. Texas A&M over Mizzou - The Tigers are not the team anyone thought they would be and the A&M defense will be the hardest they have faced so far. A&M is looking for a statement game. This is it.
3.Iowa over Minnesota - I usually don't like double digit road favorites, but Minnesota has been gold to pick against. The Hawkeyes got correct against Indiana and the Gophers rank 109th or worse in passing, points for and points against.
***Bonus over*** Oklahoma State v. Baylor is tempting, even at 79, but realize that means we gotta get 21 per quarter in this one. W could also consider SMU at Tulsa. But for overs gold, look for gold helmets ... Notre Dame v. Navy. When ND played a similar type of offense in Air Force, the two combined for 92 points. Navy and AF combined for 69. Navy is top 40 in points for, 83rd in points against.

Upset Alerts:
1. Undefeated Kansas State is a 14 point dog at home against a down Oklahoma team. I'm not coming out and saying KSU wins, but last time they were a double-digit home dog was Baylor and they won that one outright.
2. Coming off a big win over West Virginia, Syracuse has an extra day and are getting points heading into Louisville, who is 114th in points for, averaging just over 16 a game. There is no explanation other than home field that Lou is favored.
3.Oregon State got off to a rocky start, but has put up 36 points a game the last three. Utah has struggled against aggressive passing teams, Washington and Arizona State.

10/6/11

View from the HD: College Football V.2011 - Week 5

Week five in college football was a bit disappointing. Both match-ups of Top 15 caliber teams were blowouts which is starting to show a major gap in the teams that actually have a chance to win the title. I think we're down to just six teams that legitimately have a shot at the BCS crown, and unfortunately Boise State isn't one of them, again.
But this week is crow eatin' time. I was proven wrong about so many things it's ridiculous. I asked for it on the Husker Rivals page too. I asked to be proven wrong and spouted something about black jerseys that was great for hits (broke a record for readers last week). This week will be laced with battle rants that I was just plain wrong about. And no, crow does not taste like chicken ... more like humility.
Crow on...
We learned that Nebraska is who they have been for each year under Bo. A good team that underwhelms in big situations. This was their chance to prove they were back. To exert themselves into the Big Ten and make a statement. The statement is whimpered loud and clear. They aren't ready to win a championship. The talent gap between Taylor Martinez (who is now being dubbed T-ragic, not T-magic) and Wisconsin's Russell Wilson is beyond evident. But it doesn't stop there. This battle was won on the scrimmage. Wisconsin's big nasties are just flat better right now, on both sides. Their secondary is better, their receivers are better, and as gritty as Rex Burkhead is, Montee Ball is better.
Keep in mind, however, just how young a team Nebraska fields. Martinez, sophomore. Abdullah, freshman. Enunwa, soph. Turner, freshman. The offensive line is littered with underclassmen and lacking in cohesion. The Huskers just aren't elite yet. They have the promise, but they haven't had the time. One last thought ... as talented as Martinez is, he better learn to keep possession of the ball, running or throwing. People are starting to question if the juice is worth the way he squeezes the ball out of his own hands.
Speaking of orange juice, Florida has it's own issues. They came out, similar to Nebraska, and took a lead at Alabama early on a John Brantley bomb. But Alabama ran all over the Gators as Trent Richardson rushed for over 180-yards. Brantley, and the Gators hopes of a home win, we're knocked out in the second quarter. On an up-note, Florida now has to play No. 1 LSU in Baton Rouge. Lucky them.

Enough ramble, Top 10 time.
1. LSU - Nice scrimmage against Kentucky last week. Florida at home sounds tough. But with the Gators likely playing a freshman quarterback, is no contest either.
2. Alabama - Stemmed an early tide against Florida. Three no-brainers leading up to LSU.
3. Oklahoma State- Off last week. Kansas coming, as is domination of the Jayhawks.
4. Oklahoma - Of course they beat Ball State by 56. Red River next up. Maybe I'll continue to be wrong about Texas and they'll give Oklahoma a game, but I doubt it.
5. Boise State - I said last week, all they do is win by 20, and that's exactly what they did against Nevada. About the only thing I got right last week. But Boise is losing luster, just like it does every October when the big boys play big boy games. More on Boise next week.
6. Wisconsin- Very impressive and thorough beating of Nebraska. So why not rank them above Boise? I think Boise would do the same to Nebraska at this point.
7. Clemson - Their resume is actually better, from a ranking standpoint, than most Top 10 teams. And by my normal method, I should have them third or fourth. Shutting Va Tech down to three points hasn't been done since 2006. But the Hokies, Auburn and Florida State are tier-two or three programs within the Top 25. Could they really beat those above them?
8. Stanford- The Boise State of the Pac 12. They just have yet to play anyone and won't until the de-facto conference title game against Oregon. Good thing for them the Pac 12 is a BCS conference, or they would be stuck with no shot at a title, too.
9. Georgia Tech - Thank you for the humble pie. I predicted a loss at NC State. Yeah the final score looked close, at 45-35, but GT had a 42-14 lead in the fourth quarter after a flurry of three scores in three minutes. They average almost 600 yards of total offense and that triple option run game gets almost 400 per. They hang 52 on everyone. The Clemson game later this month will be a bonus BCS game nobody saw coming.
10. Arkansas - I really wish Baylor would have beaten Kansas State. I had this spot all warmed up for them. The Razorbacks are the best one-loss team out there and their loss was to No. 2. Arkansas showed  a lot of tenacity in the comeback over A&M.

Not quite ready to give Michigan, Texas or Kansas State Top 10 love yet. They all three have brutal conference schedules to navigate.

Crow eating time! I was wrong about Texas. Maybe with Gilbert Grape out of their way, they will be good again. The Big XII really slapped me in the face all around. I gave love to Iowa State (lost), Baylor (lost), A&M (lost) and said Texas was still garbage (won big). I thought Wisconsin would be softened by their week schedule so far. Nope, tough as as bad meat. Gave props to Illinois, who had to rally late to clip a Northwestern team that isn't great. Pitt laid waste to South Florida, who I claimed had first rights to the conference. So, ok here it is ... I was wrong.

Games of the week:

Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee State: Just kidding ...
Oklahoma @ Texas: Obviously the biggest game of the week. Landry Jones is trying to prove he's not just a dark horse Heisman guy. The Sooners have more talent and Texas is a bit overrated. However this is the game that decides the Big XII and has for a number of years been a game that decides who plays in the BCS game. Both teams come in with a lot of momentum and a lot to prove. Let's just hope for viewer's sake their not the blowouts last week's two big games were.

Boise St. @ Fresno St. : You might skip past this one thinking its going to be another Boise walkthrough, but hold on. Boise has zombied through every game since the Georgia opener. Kellen Moore is likely the best pure passing QB in the country, but they are easy to set aside. Fresno's own QB Derek Carr in no slouch, however. I've seen first had how effective he can be on the roll out pass. This game gets national attention played on a Friday night and Fresno will give them hell.

So many more games had the potential to be marquee this week, if not for some losses already: Iowa State @ Baylor, Ohio State @ Nebraska, Auburn @ Arkansas, etc. So lets do this. Ill list the match-up, you tell me who has the better record (without going to ESPN.com or Yahoo! Sports!). Answers at the end.

-Texas A&M @Texas Tech
-TCU @ San Diego State
-Georgia @ Tennessee
-Cal @ Oregon
- Florida State @ Wake Forest
-Washington State @ UCLA

We'll do Conference Breakdowns next week as there are some big games this week.

Predictions

Locks: Three of four last week, not bad. I should have given you all Michigan over Minnesota instead of Northern Illinois on the road at Central Michigan, who won the game outright and blew my lock pick away. More crow.
This week: 
1. Give us Stanford at home again against Pac 12 newby Colorado, who is 1-4. Get your night right!
2. Georgia Tech over Maryland. If Temple can beat Maryland by 31 in Maryland, what's G-Tech going to do to them?
3. Baylor to cream Iowa State. The Cyclone inspiration bubble popped last week, and so did Baylor's perfect record. Baylor is mad, at home and RG3 may go 28-33 for 312 yards and five touchdowns. Just tossing it out there.
***Bonus over*** Had a lot of success with Kansas and overs, so lets stay comfy. Oklahoma State = fantastic offense, ok defense. Kansas = Bad defense, capable offense. This one gets away from the Jayhawks early and a bunch of late third and early fourth quarter garbage TD's send this one over.
Upset Alerts: I should know, by my day job, that past performance does not ensure future gains. I forgot this with my upsets last week. Yeah Utah State nearly made me a genius, but Iowa State and NC State got smoked. Try, try again.
1. Iowa is a dog at Penn State. Could be a trap, but common sense says Iowa.
2. Wake Forest covers Florida State and maybe win outright. Double digit home dog, Seminoles reeling, let down coming.
3. Kansas State is a home dog against Mizzou. If the KSU can stay up from the Baylor win, they'll win this battle of the Cats.
Answers to Better record:
-Texas Tech is still undefeated at 4-0. A&M is 2-2.
-TCU is 3-2 while San Diego State is 3-1 with a loss to Michigan.
-Tennessee is 3-1, which shocked me. Go Rocky Top. Georgia 3-2
-Cal and Oregon: Trick question, both are 3-1. Cal's first loss came last week at Washington.
-Wake Forest is a quiet 3-1 while Florida State is a very public 2-2.
-Washington State is 3-1. No really, they are. UCLA is 2-3 and floundering.